Bayesian checking of hierarchical models

M.J. Bayarri, and M.E. Castellanos

University of Valencia and Rey Juan Carlos University

November 2004

Hierarchical models are increasingly used in many applications. Along with this increase use comes a desire to investigate whether the model is compatible with the observed data. Bayesian methods are well suited to eliminate the many (nuisance) parameters in these complicated models; in this paper we investigate Bayesian methods for model checking. Since we contemplate model checking as a preliminary, exploratory analysis, we concentrate in objective Bayesian methods in which careful specification of an informative prior distribution is avoided. Numerous examples are given and different proposals are investigated.

Keywords: model checking; model criticism; objective Bayesian methods; p-values.


The manuscript is available in PDF format.